Gaming: Can the Mid-American Conference Rebound?

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/20/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Mid-American Conference came into last season fresh off a 28-21 against the spread mark outside its own league, while going 17-12 against Bowl Championship Series competition. Unfortunately, those solid numbers fell to 21-25-2 and 15-16, respectively, in '09. The probable cause for the decline was lack of experience, as eight of the 13 teams returned fewer than 14 starters.

It is true that the conference is fodder for BCS schools, but it also has fared poorly against its own kind, especially in bowl games. The MAC is just 1-12 straight up and 1-10-2 ATS in postseason play since '07, including 1-7 SU and 0-6-2 ATS versus teams from the WAC, Conference USA, Mountain West and the Sun Belt.

Within the league, favorites were 29-22-1, a massive turnaround from years past. Underdogs held the advantage by a 51-42-1 count in '07 and '08 combined.

Time now to take a deeper look into the two divisions that make up the conference with predicted straight-up, overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.

WEST

6) EASTERN MICHIGAN - The Eagles, who were 4-8 ATS last season, are 4-9 ATS as home underdogs the last four years.

Offense - Not much went right last year after quarterback Andy Schmitt was lost for the season in week three. The Eagles averaged just 14 points per game in league play after going for 26 in '08. Don't expect any sort of resurgence this fall.

Defense - It must have been difficult for head coach Ron English to watch his defense finish dead last nationally vs. the run, allowing 277 yards per game on 6.3 yards per carry. It will be even tougher this season without Brandon Downs, the only player on the team to record more than two sacks (7.5).

Prediction - Get ready for a possible 50-point spread when the Eagles travel to Ohio State on Sept. 25. (0-12, 0-8)

5) WESTERN MICHIGAN - The Broncos were 3-8 ATS in '09, 1-5 in their last six games. They are just 2-7 ATS as road underdogs the last two years.

Offense - One would have expected the offense to flourish in quarterback Tim Hiller's final year but that wasn't the case as almost all passing, scoring, and rushing numbers went south. With Hiller and two-time 1,000-yard rusher Brandon West gone, the offense could suffer even more.

Defense - The Broncos, who came into last season with four new starters in the secondary, were actually hurt by the run, finishing 10th in the league allowing 178 rushing ypg. This year's squad will be without its top three tackles for loss leaders, along with very little experience at cornerback.

Prediction - The Broncos are 5-11-1 in their last 17 league games as favorites. Keep that in mind as they should be the betting choice in at least five of the eight contests. (5-7, 3-5)

4) BALL STATE - The Cardinals went 6-5 ATS in '09, covering three of their last four games. They are 20-6 ATS on the road the last four years.

Offense - Last year was a transitional season for Ball State, as the offensive output dropped from 38 ppg to 20 in league play. Nevertheless, the ground attack improved over the second half of the year with 1,335 yards on 5.3 ypc after rushing for just 578 yards and 3.2 ypc in the first six games. With better quarterback play, the Cardinals offense will average a touchdown more per game in 2010.

Defense - Ball State returned just four of its top nine tacklers last year and it showed, as the unit gave up an average of 28 ppg. This year, seven of the top nine return in the second year of the new defensive system.

Prediction - Six of their 10 Football Bowl Subdivision games are on the road so remember to have some extra cash handy for all of those contests. (5-7, 3-5)

3) CENTRAL MICHIGAN - The Chippewas were 9-3-1 ATS last season. They are 11-2 as home favorites the last four years.

Offense - This year's offensive attack will look nothing like the last four seasons when Dan LeFevour ran the show. In fact, both offenses in the spring game combined for just three points. The switch to a pro-style formation (from the spread) will obviously need time to develop.

Defense - Ten returning starters helped the Chippewas rank first in the league in scoring defense giving up just 19 ppg. On the other hand, they were just 12 yards per game away from finishing sixth in total defense. With only five starters back in 2010 look for the defense to allow at least a touchdown more per game.

Prediction - Wager against the Chippewas early in the season as it will take some time for their new offensive schemes to take shape. (5-7, 4-4)

2) TOLEDO - The Rockets were 5-7 ATS, 1-4 in their last five games. They are 7-18 as road underdogs over the last six years, and 7-17 off a straight-up victory in the last five.

Offense - The Rockets outgained their opponents by an average margin of 438- 407 last year. Unfortunately, they were outscored 38-30. Those offensive numbers could be even higher in 2010 with Austin Dantin at quarterback and former 1,000-yard rusher Morgan Williams taking on more of the load at tailback.

Defense - This is the side of the ball that must progress if Toledo wants to return to the postseason for the first time since 2006. The defense is very young so the improvements might not be seen until 2011, but the players are now in the second year of the new system, so don't be surprised if the Rockets enjoy success a little earlier than expected.

Prediction - Toledo was 8-4 to the over last year. Look for more of the same this season. (7-5, 5-3)

1) NORTHERN ILL - The Huskies were 5-7 ATS last year, 0-4 in their last four games. They are 4-11 ATS as home favorites the last four years.

Offense - Northern Illinois averaged 31 ppg in league play last season, finishing third in both rushing (210 ypg) and quarterback completion percentage (63%). Those numbers will be even stronger in 2010 with added talent at both the running back and wide receiver positions.

Defense - It's not often a coach comes out of spring practices raving about his team the way Jerry Kill did back in April. He was especially ecstatic about the defense, and that was before defensive end Jake Coffman decided to return for his senior season.

Prediction - It will be tough to cash in on the Huskies this year as they should be favored in almost every league game. However, don't be afraid to back them in out-of-conference play. (10-2, 7-1)

EAST

7) BOWLING GREEN - The Falcons went 7-5-1 ATS last season. They are 5-0 ATS as road underdogs the last two years, but 6-14 as home favorites in the last five.

Offense - Bowling Green led the conference in passing last season behind the lethal duo of Tyler Sheehan and Freddie Barnes. Both players have departed, along with three offensive line starters, leaving major holes in the offense.

Defense - The Falcons returned three of their top six tacklers a year ago and still finished 11th in total defense inside the conference. One can only imagine how poorly they will play this season without their top six tacklers.

Prediction - Bet against Bowling Green early and often. (3-9, 3-5)

6) BUFFALO - The Bulls were 4-6-1 ATS in '09. They are 16-7 ATS (70%) as road underdogs the last four years, but 1-6-1 (19%) as conference favorites over the last two.

Offense - With the departure of quarterback Zach Maynard as well as the club's top three reception leaders (164 catches and 18 touchdowns), the Bulls will have a tough time averaging three touchdowns per game.

Defense - Buffalo allowed only 132 rushing ypg last season, by far the lowest total in school history. But the change to a 3-4 could backfire, especially if linebacker Scott Pettigrew misses the year with a knee injury suffered in the spring.

Prediction - The Bulls' solid road underdog record will be put to the test early on with four away games among the first six contests. (4-8, 3-5)

5) AKRON - The Zips went 3-8 ATS last season, 1-5 in their final six games. However, they are 10-5 ATS in non-conference play over the last four seasons.

Offense - Last year's offense was a horror show after Chris Jacquemain's untimely suspension prior to week three. Add in the fact that the top two running backs were plagued with injuries the entire season, and the Zips were only able to muster 19 ppg. Look for a massive upswing in production this year.

Defense - The defense has to improve its pass rush (11 sacks each of the last two years) to ease the burden on an inexperienced secondary that loses three starters. With 11 of the top 14 tacklers back, an opportunity to surprise is well within reach.

Prediction - Opponents might take the Zips lightly this season, which should improve their ATS record from 3-8 to above the .500 mark. (5-7, 3-5)

4) MIAMI-OHIO - The RedHawks finished 5-7 ATS last year, but were 3-2 in their last five games. They are 1-7 ATS as home favorites the last four years.

Offense - Quarterback Zac Dysert progressed nicely as his freshman year moved along, finishing with an 8-5 TD/INT ratio in his final five games after a 3-9 mark in his first four contests. The offensive line returns 80 career starts after beginning last year with just 27 in a brand new system. The RedHawks will have one of the most improved offenses in the country.

Defense - This unit actually finished fifth in total defense in league play last year and that was with a total of 54 career starts from its opening day lineup. This season, the defense returns over 100 career starts and nine of 11 leading tacklers are back as well.

Prediction - Miami was last nationally in turnover margin at -24 last year. With better ball control, look for the RedHawks to be in bowl contention come November. More importantly, since they were 1-11 in '09, they will be getting a ton of points on a week-to-week basis so keep them in mind all season long. (5-7, 4-4)

3) OHIO - The Bobcats were 8-5 ATS last year, 4-1 in their final five games. They are 9-3 ATS as road underdogs over the last five years.

Offense - Ohio enters the season without last year's starting quarterback, leading rusher and receiver. Still, there's a chance the offense could be even better due to the tremendous depth head coach Frank Solich has in Athens.

Defense - The Bobcats ranked second in the league in scoring behind Central Michigan last year. They also were tied for first nationally with 37 takeaways. It's doubtful they will be able to duplicate both feats this season.

Prediction - Ohio has finished above .500 ATS each of the last four years. Don't count on the Bobcats making it five in a row. (7-5, 5-3)

2) TEMPLE - The Owls went 8-4 ATS last season. They are 6-2 ATS in non- conference play over the last two years, and 12-6 under Al Golden off a SU victory.

Offense - Running back Bernard Pierce rushed for 1,361 yards and 16 touchdowns in his freshman season. Nevertheless, he failed to finish one-third of his starts due to injury. His health is important since quarterback Chester Stewart has thrown 10 interceptions in 171 career attempts while failing to garner a completion percentage greater than 55% in seven career starts.

Defense - The Owls allowed just 81 ypg and 2.9 ypc in eight league games last year. Both totals were number one in the conference. Opposing teams could only beat them through the air, and they did so at an alarming rate. Not only did the defense finish last in passing yardage (269 per game), the unit also ranked next-to-last allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% of their passes.

Prediction - Temple comes into '10 a bit overrated so bet against coach Golden's squad on a weekly basis. (8-4, 6-2)

1) KENT STATE - The Golden Flashes were 6-4-1 ATS in '09. They are 10-5-1 in league play the last two years but 2-7 in non-conference action the last three.

Offense - The scoring average fell from 26 ppg in '08 to 19 ppg last season after injuries to multiple skill position players affected the squad. With the return of running back Eugene Jarvis and the maturation of quarterback Spencer Keith, look for Kent State to climb back to the 25 ppg mark.

Defense - The Golden Flashes allowed 22 ppg last year, a 10-point decrease from two seasons ago. That reduction was partly due to their top seven national ranking inside the red zone. With the return of the top six tacklers, they have arguably the top defense in the division.

Prediction - Kent State has a great chance to go 8-3 ATS, something the team hasn't achieved since the 2003 season. (7-5, 6-2)

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.

As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.

Bet 2010 Super Bowl Odds

The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.

Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).

But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.

Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.

Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:

Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1

Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2

New York Giants - 9 - 2

Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).

Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.

So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.

And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.

They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.

Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.

But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.

Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.

Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.

Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.

Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?

Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.

In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.

Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.

Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.

The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.

The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.

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