The Preakness - Horse Racing's Middle Child

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/11/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Most casual horse racing fans hold the Kentucky Derby in high regard. They also get revved up for the Belmont Stakes if a horse is in line for a possible Triple Crown. On the other hand, the Preakness Stakes usually gets lost in the shuffle.

Passionate fans of the sport, especially chalk players, love the Preakness as it usually is the most formful of the three races. In fact, the favorite has won seven of the last nine runnings, including Rachel Alexandra's historic victory over the boys last May.

Nevertheless, the race isn't run just for the betting choice's benefit. Longshots have fared very well this decade when it comes to rounding out the exacta.

Two years ago, 39-1 Macho Again finished second behind Big Brown, and in 2005, Scrappy T, the co-seventh choice, filled out a $152.60 exacta in back of the favored Afleet Alex.

When Funny Cide rolled to a 9 3/4-length score in 2003, Midway Road, the next- to-last longshot, held off third choice Scrimshaw by three-quarters of a length to complete a $120.60 exacta, and one year earlier, the locally-trained three-year-old Magic Weisner rallied for second behind War Emblem. The 45-1 shot combined with the winning favorite for a $327.00 payout.

If you like a longshot in this year's field, don't be fearful of betting him underneath the top two favorites.

Speaking of the Run for the Roses, after three straight years (2002-2004) of Derby winners capturing the second leg of the Triple Crown, only one has crossed the wire first at Pimlico since and that was the heavy 1-5 favorite, Big Brown.

Everyone remembers the tragedy that befell Barbaro in the 2006 running, and the following year, Street Sense failed to hold off the late charge by Curlin.

Not many folks expected Mine That Bird or Giacomo, the two 50-1 Derby winners, to come right back two weeks later and be draped with the Black-Eyed Susans, especially at 6-1 odds, but they both hit the board with the former running a game second to Rachel Alexandra and the latter finishing third behind Afleet Alex and Scrappy T.

Horses coming out of the Derby have won the Preakness 23 of the last 26 years, so on the surface, the odds look pretty sweet that Saturday's winner will be one of the five colts that raced at Churchill Downs on May 1. However, non- Derby horses have taken two of the last four as Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra crashed the party in 2006 and 2009, respectively.

My advice is to bet the horse with the best chance of winning, regardless of where he made his last start.

PREAKNESS TOSS-OUTS

Jackson Bend has finished first or second in nine of 10 career starts. However, his lone poor effort came on the biggest stage in the Kentucky Derby. The Nick Zito-trained colt had a decent trip in the Run for the Roses, but faltered late finishing 19-lengths behind Super Saver.

The son of Hear No Evil was bred to be a miler and it showed two weeks ago when he ran his final quarter-mile in 30 seconds flat. Harness horses come home faster than that!

Look for Jackson Bend to sit much closer to the pace on Saturday, but it's extremely doubtful he'll keep up with the other front runners through the stretch.

Due to his nose loss to Ice Box in the Florida Derby, Pleasant Prince lacked the graded earnings necessary to enter the Kentucky Derby. Nonetheless, his owner, Kenneth Ramsey, tried every which way possible to get the colt into the Churchill Downs starting gate, racing him twice in the month of April. Unfortunately, the plan backfired since Pleasant Prince lost by over nine lengths in both starts.

Most owners and trainers that skip the Derby and aim towards the Preakness do so to have a fresh horse on the third Saturday in May. However, Pleasant Prince does not fall into that category as this will be his third start in the last five weeks.

D. Wayne Lukas has won the Preakness five times, but the last came over a decade ago. He'll have a pair of colts in the 2010 running, one year after his Flying Private ran fourth at 25-1.

Northern Giant comes into the race off a last place finish in the Arkansas Derby. His two best races came in his two prior starts - the Risen Star (third) and Lane's End (second), but the winners of those two races - Discreetly Mine and Dean's Kitten - finished 13th and 14th in the Kentucky Derby.

Northern Giant has no business being in the starting gate.

Dublin, his other Preakness starter, ran very well underneath the Twin Spires finishing seventh, beaten 7 1/2-lengths. Breaking from post 17, the son of Afleet Alex was well back early on before making a powerful run around the far turn closing to within two lengths of the lead.

However, he ran like a very tired horse through the stretch, bearing in and out before faltering late. In addition, his bold middle move was obviously helped by the fast pace set by both Conveyance and Sidney's Candy.

Dublin will put forth another decent effort but the 1 3/16-mile distance will prove too much for him to handle.

First Dude is another horse that will have trouble getting the 9.5-furlongs. In his two graded stakes attempts at 1 1/8-miles, he dropped back a combined 7 1/2 lengths in the final two furlongs.

The son of Stephen Got Even did have to steady at the top of the stretch in the Florida Derby, but he still finished more than six lengths behind Ice Box and Pleasant Prince. In the Blue Grass, he ran close to the pace early on, only to finish third, beaten over five lengths by Stately Victor.

The only chance First Dude has of finishing in the money is if he changes his running style from stalker to closer, but based on his last workout it's doubtful there'll be any transformation. The bay colt fired off a 1:00 3/5 bullet work at Churchill Downs, hitting the three-furlong marker in a brisk 35 1/5.

Like his former boss D. Wayne Lukas, Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher will have two colts on the track this Saturday.

Dogwood Stable's Aikenite joins Super Saver in Pletcher's quest to win his first ever Preakness Stakes, a race he's 0-4, including a last place finish in 2009 with Take the Points.

Aikenite, who has not won since breaking his maiden last August, has two in- the-money finishes this year along with a pair of clunkers. The colt does his best running from off-the-pace as witnessed by his exceptional efforts in last year's Hopeful Stakes and Breeders' Futurity, along with a second-place finish in the recently run Derby Trial. However, like many colts in the field, the final furlong will be his undoing.

Stay tuned later in the week for more analysis and predictions.

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Football Betting

NFL Football Betting Online

The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.

Thursday, August 21

NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37

NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road

In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):

* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games

Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.

Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.

Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.

That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.

Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.

CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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